Over the past year, global trade has been significantly shaped by a variety of pressing challenges, including escalating geopolitical tensions, frequent climate change-related crises, and the continued rise of protectionist policies. In this context, the World Trade Organization (WTO) recently released its latest monitoring report on trade measures enacted by the G20 economies. The report highlights a troubling trend towards increased trade restrictions and protectionism, with a particular focus on the trade policies of the world's largest economies between October 2023 and October 2024. 

The latest findings illustrate a sharp rise in trade restrictions, a trend that has been steadily increasing over the past decade. According to the WTO report, new trade barriers introduced by G20 countries during the last year have had a profound impact on global commerce, with a notable surge in the volume of trade affected by these measures. Specifically, the report states that 91 new trade restrictions were put in place during the period, targeting primarily imports. The total value of trade affected by these restrictions reached $828.9 billion, a staggering 237% increase compared to the previous period. This surge in trade restrictions is indicative of a broader global trend of rising protectionism.

The statistics reveal that the scope of trade restrictions has expanded significantly in recent years. Since 2009, the number of import restrictions imposed by G20 economies has grown consistently, reaching a total of $2.3 trillion in trade affected by these measures in 2024. This accounts for 12.7% of total imports across G20 economies. At the same time, export restrictions—while still less common—have grown noticeably since 2020, now affecting 1.3% of total goods exports from G20 countries. This has been compounded by an increasing number of trade restrictions imposed under the guise of “national security,” which have affected approximately $79.6 billion in global trade.

While trade restrictions continue to dominate global trade policy, the report also underscores the rising use of trade remedy measures, such as anti-dumping measures. These have become a significant tool for governments seeking to protect domestic industries from what they perceive as unfair foreign competition. On average, 25.4 trade remedy measures were enacted per month during the reporting period, an increase of 46% compared to the previous period, with anti-dumping measures accounting for the majority of these actions. The WTO’s data suggests that the frequency of these measures is driven by a desire to shield domestic industries from what some countries view as unfair practices in foreign markets.

In addition to direct trade barriers, the WTO report highlights the growing role of government subsidies and economic support measures. Governments, including those of major economies in the G20, have been increasingly implementing support for strategic industries, with a particular emphasis on sectors like energy, agriculture, and the environment. Both the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) have similarly noted that the number of supportive industrial policies is on the rise. However, while it is still difficult to assess the precise impact of these policies on global trade, the WTO warns that these measures could exacerbate current trade tensions, adding yet another layer of uncertainty to the global economic landscape.

The rise of economic support measures and the increased use of trade restrictions are not the only trends identified by the WTO in its latest report. In a somewhat paradoxical twist, the WTO also points to an increase in trade facilitation measures. Despite the broader trend towards protectionism, G20 economies have implemented 141 new trade promotion measures during the reporting period, covering a total of $1.07 trillion in trade. These measures, which mainly target imports, represent a 235% increase in the value of trade covered compared to the previous period. Notably, most of these measures were aimed at easing trade barriers and improving market access. In the services trade sector, 50 new trade facilitation measures were implemented, most of which were aimed at streamlining the processes involved in cross-border service exchanges.

What does all this mean for the future of global trade? According to the WTO, the trade policy landscape is increasingly complex. While trade protectionism is on the rise, so too are efforts to facilitate trade, creating a situation where G20 economies are caught between competing impulses. On the one hand, protectionist policies are designed to shield domestic industries from foreign competition, while on the other, trade facilitation measures are being introduced to make it easier for businesses to operate across borders.

The rise of protectionism, especially amidst the current economic and geopolitical challenges, is likely to have serious consequences for the global economy. Trade tensions are contributing to uncertainty and volatility, and many countries are resorting to protectionist measures in a bid to safeguard their own economic interests. However, the growing number of trade facilitation measures suggests that some countries are still committed to finding ways to reduce barriers and enhance cross-border trade flows. This dual trend—an increase in both protectionism and trade facilitation—reflects the contradictory pressures that global trade systems are under.

The WTO has warned that these trends present significant challenges for international trade, as well as for the global economy as a whole. The fragmentation of global trade, characterized by the rise of regional trade agreements and the shift towards “nearshoring,” is already becoming more apparent. However, the WTO also believes that the current climate of trade tensions presents an opportunity for countries to work together and jointly manage these challenges. By pushing for reforms within the WTO framework, countries can foster better coordination on key issues such as industrial policy, climate change, and trade liberalization. The WTO’s role in mediating these tensions will be crucial in determining whether global trade can move toward a more open, cooperative, and stable future.

Ultimately, the WTO's recent findings underscore the delicate balance between trade liberalization and protectionism, and the growing complexity of global trade policy. As the world grapples with a host of pressing challenges—from geopolitical instability to climate change—the trade policies of G20 economies will continue to play a key role in shaping the future of global commerce. The outcome will depend largely on whether countries are able to navigate these challenges in a way that promotes cooperation rather than division, and whether international institutions like the WTO can facilitate the kind of global coordination needed to reduce trade tensions and foster long-term economic growth.